Yields on Treasurys kept sliding early Thursday, helping push U.S. stock index futures higher as debate raged over whether “risk on” trades will return.

Two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.954% and 10-year notes had fallen all the way 4.691% after briefly topping 5% two weeks ago. Bids in Treasurys come as the chance of another quarter point Federal Reserve rate increase at its Dec. 13 policy meeting crumbles — down to a less than 1 in 7 probability (14.6%), according to the CME FedWatch tool that uses interest rate futures prices.

S&P 500 index futures were recently 31 points higher at 4237, up about 0.7%, while Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 161 or 1.1% to 14,906.

As inflation weakens, “yields will probably drop further but settle at a much higher level than before the pandemic,” London-based Capital Economics wrote Thursday.

— Scott Schnipper

Markets found enough in this week’s Federal Reserve meeting to suggest that there’s only a small chance of any additional interest rate hike.

The odds for a December increase fell Thursday morning to 14.6%, according the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which uses fed funds futures pricing to gauge probabilities. A month ago, the chances of a move in December were at 39%.

Futures pricing, which can be volatile and swing quickly, now indicates that the first rate cut could come as soon as May.

—Jeff Cox

Peloton shares dropped 6% in premarket trading Thursday after the connected fitness company reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and a tepid holiday forecast.

Peloton posted a loss of 44 cents per share, more than the per-share loss of 34 cents expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Revenue beat expectations, coming in at $595.5 million, more than the $591 million anticipated.

The company is forecasting revenue of between $715 million and $750 million in its holiday quarter, representing an 8% drop at the midpoint compared to the year-ago period. That falls short of the $763.2 million analysts had expected for the company’s fiscal second quarter, according to LSEG.

— Gabrielle Fonrouge, Sarah Min

Eli Lilly on Thursday reported third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings that topped estimates on strong demand for its diabetes drug Mounjaro, but slashed its full-year profit guidance due to charges primarily related to its recent acquisitions.

The pharmaceutical company reported earnings of 10 cents per share, far above expectations of a per-share loss of 13 cents, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Revenue came in at $9.50 billion, more than the $8.95 billion expected.

The company lowered its 2023 adjusted earnings guidance to a range of $6.50 to $6.70, from a previous range of $9.70 to $9.90 per share.

— Annika Kim Constantino, Sarah Min

Moderna posted a sharp third-quarter loss due in large part to a $1.3 billion write-down from unused Covid-19 vaccines.

Overall, the company reported a loss of $9.53 per share. It was unclear if that’s comparable to an LSEG estimate of $1.93 per share. Revenue, however, exceeded analyst expectations.

Shares dipped more than 2% in the premarket.

Treasury yields were down across the curve as traders assess the prospects of the Fed being done raising rates for the year.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield traded at 4.718%, down 7 basis points. The shorter-term 2-year note yield was down about 2 basis points at 4.956%.

European stock markets opened higher Thursday after notching a third straight positive session.

The Stoxx 600 index was up 1.16% at 8:28 a.m. London time, with France’s CAC 40 gaining 1.26% and Germany’s DAX up 1.16%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was 1% higher.

Hong Kong’s retail sales grew at their slowest pace since January, highlighting the impact of a global high interest rate environment.

Retail sales for September rose 13% on a year-over-year basis, less than the prior month’s 13.7% rise, official data showed late on Wednesday.

“The culprit of sluggish recovery is elevated interest rates, which has been dampening consumption & tourism, external trade, and investment,” said Samuel Tse, a DBS economist. “HK economic fundamentals closely follows the Mainland (China).”

Tse says external demand from both China and the rest of the world were tepid, highlighting that rising rates restrained consumption through high fixed deposits rate, a strong Hong Kong dollar and a weak asset market.

— Shreyashi Sanyal

Australia’s balance of goods for September narrowed to 6.79 billion Australian dollars ($4.37 billion) on seasonally adjusted basis, official data showed.

The reading was the narrowest since March 2021, and below a Reuters poll forecast of AU$9.64 billion.

Exports fell 1.4%, driven by a drop in non-monetary gold shipments. Imports jumped 7.5%, led by a 74% surge in imports of industrial transport equipment.

The Australia Bureau of Statistics said it has ceased reporting data on trade services monthly and it will now be published quarterly.

— Shreyashi Sanyal

South Korea’s inflation rate quickened for the third straight month in October, with the consumer price index increasing 3.8% year-on-year.

This was higher than the 3.6% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and also more than the 3.7% rise in September.

The reading marks the third straight month that the inflation rate in the country has climbed, after hitting a 25-month low of 2.3% in July.

— Lim Hui Jie

With more than half of the trading week now in the rearview mirror, the three major indexes are on pace to finish higher.

The Dow and S&P 500 have climbed 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively, since the start of the week. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 3.3%, underscoring the particularly strong performance of technology stocks.

— Alex Harring

These are some of the stocks moving after hours:

• SolarEdge — The solar stock cratered 23% after SolarEdge posted a dismal third-quarter report and outlook for current-quarter revenue. 
• Qualcomm — Shares jumped 3.6% after the wireless technology exceeded analysts’ estimates in its fiscal fourth quarter,
• Airbnb — The vacation rental platform fell almost 3% on the back of underwhelming revenue guidance.

See the full list here.

— Alex Harring

Stock futures traded near flat Wednesday night.

Dow futures sat near the flatline, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each inched about 0.1% higher,

— Alex Harring